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Peter Gerbrands is a Researcher at the of Utrecht University School of Economics, where is develops the data infrastructure FIRMBACKBONE. He teaches data science courses and econometrics as well as supervising bachelor, master, and Ph.D. theses. His research interests are agent-based simulations, social network analysis, complex systems, big data analysis, statistical learning, and computational social science. He applies his skills primarily for policy analysis, especially related to illicit financial flows, i.e. tax evasion, tax avoidance and money laundering and has published in Regulation & Governance, and EPJ Data Science. Prior to becoming an academic, Peter had a long career in IT consulting. In the Fall of 2023, he was a Visiting Research Scholar at SUNY Binghamton in NY.
agent-based simulations
social network analysis
complex systems
big data analysis
statistical learning
computational social science
In this paper, we explore the dynamic of stock prices over time by developing an agent-based market. The developed artificial market comprises of heterogeneous agents occupied with various behaviors and trading strategies. To be specific, the agents in the market may expose to overconfidence, conservatism or loss aversion biases. Additionally, they may employ fundamental, technical, adaptive (neural network) strategies or simply being arbitrary agents (zero intelligence agents). The market has property of direct interaction. The environment takes the form of network structure, namely, it takes the manifestation of scale-free network. The information will flow between the agents through the linkages that connect them. Furthermore, the tax imposed by the regulator is investigated. The model is subjected to goodness of fit to the empirical observations of the S\&P500. The fitting of the model is refined by calibrating the model parameters through heuristic approach, particularly, scatter search. Conclusively, the parameters are validated against normality, absence of correlations, volatility cluster and leverage effect using statistical tests.