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The O.R.E. (Opinions on Risky Events) model describes how a population of interacting individuals process information about a risk of natural catastrophe. The institutional information gives the official evaluation of the risk; the agents receive this communication, process it and also speak to each other processing further the information. The description of the algorithm (as it appears also in the paper) can be found in the attached file OREmodel_description.pdf.
The code (ORE_model.c), written in C, is commented. Also the datasets (inputFACEBOOK.txt and inputEMAILs.txt) of the real networks utilized with this model are available.
For any questions/requests, please write me at daniele.vilone@gmail.com
For deep decarbonisation, the design of climate policy needs to account for consumption choices being influenced not only by pricing but also by social learning. This involves changes that pertain to the whole spectrum of consumption, possibly involving shifts in lifestyles. In this regard, it is crucial to consider not just short-term social learning processes but also slower, longer-term, cultural change. Against this background, we analyse the interaction between climate policy and cultural change, focusing on carbon taxation. We extend the notion of “social multiplier” of environmental policy derived in an earlier study to the context of multiple consumer needs while allowing for behavioural spillovers between these, giving rise to a “cultural multiplier”. We develop a model to assess how this cultural multiplier contributes to the effectiveness of carbon taxation. Our results show that the cultural multiplier stimulates greater low-carbon consumption compared to fixed preferences. The model results are of particular relevance for policy acceptance due to the cultural multiplier being most effective at low-carbon tax values, relative to a counter-case of short-term social interactions. Notably, at high carbon tax levels, the distinction between social and cultural multiplier effects diminishes, as the strong price signal drives even resistant individuals toward low-carbon consumption. By varying socio-economic conditions, such as substitutability between low- and high-carbon goods, social network structure, proximity of like-minded individuals and the richness of consumption lifestyles, the model provides insight into how cultural change can be leveraged to induce maximum effectiveness of climate policy.
Negotiation Lab 1.0 is an agent-based model of peace negotiations that explores how the parties’ readiness — their motivation and optimism to engage in talks — evolves dynamically throughout the negotiation process. The model reconceptualizes readiness as an adaptive state variable that is continuously updated through feedback from negotiation outcomes, rather than a static precondition assessed at the onset of talks.
The model simulates two parties negotiating a multi-issue agenda. In each round, parties allocate effort to the current sub-issue; outcomes depend on their joint effort and a stochastic component representing external factors. Results feed back into each party’s readiness, shaping subsequent engagement. The negotiation ends either when all agenda items are resolved (agreement) or when a party’s readiness falls below a critical threshold (breakdown).
Key parameters include the initial readiness of each party, agenda structure (balanced, hard, easy, red, or random), type of negotiation (from highly cooperative to highly competitive), and each party’s effort strategy (always high, always low, random, or pseudo tit-for-tat). The model shows that while initial readiness is associated with negotiation outcomes, it is neither necessary nor sufficient to determine them: process variables — the type of interaction, agenda design, and adaptive effort strategies — exert comparatively larger effects on outcomes. Identical initial conditions can produce widely divergent trajectories, illustrating path dependence and sensitivity to feedback dynamics.
The model is implemented in NetLogo 7.0 and is documented using the ODD+D protocol. It is associated with the paper “Beyond Initial Conditions: How Adaptive Readiness Shapes Peace Negotiation Outcomes” (Arévalo, under review).
The model demonstrates how non-instantaneous sampling techniques produce bias by overestimating the number of counted animals, when they move relative to the person counting them.
A simplified Arthur & Polak logic circuit model of combinatory technology build-out via incremental development. Only some inventions trigger radical effects, suggesting they depend on whole interdependent systems rather than specific innovations.
The Megafaunal Hunting Pressure Model (MHPM) is an interactive, agent-based model designed to conduct experiments to test megaherbivore extinction hypotheses. The MHPM is a model of large-bodied ungulate population dynamics with human predation in a simplified, but dynamic grassland environment. The overall purpose of the model is to understand how environmental dynamics and human predation preferences interact with ungulate life history characteristics to affect ungulate population dynamics over time. The model considers patterns in environmental change, human hunting behavior, prey profitability, herd demography, herd movement, and animal life history as relevant to this main purpose. The model is constructed in the NetLogo modeling platform (Version 6.3.0; Wilensky, 1999).
This model simulates household water consumption patterns in an urban environment. Its current setup compares monthly water consumption data, and the results of a daily heuristic water demand model with the simulation results produced by household demographics that is fine tuned via some base demand model. It’s designed to estimate and analyze water demand based on various factors including household demographics, daily routines of residents (working, weekending, vacation patterns), weather conditions (temperature and precipitation), appliance usage patterns, seasonal variations, and special periods such as weekends and holidays. The model aims to help understand how different factors influence residential water consumption and can be used for water demand forecasting and management.
This computational model is an agent-based model (ABM) developed to investigate how repeated failures of emerging niches accumulate and influence the trajectory of socio-technical transitions. Built in AnyLogic 8.7.11, the model simulates the dynamic interactions between a dominant regime and sequential niche entrants within a two-dimensional practice space. It models alignment, movement, and competition based on technological maturity and market penetration. The model utilizes a reinforcing feedback structure linking consumer support, output, resource accumulation, and capacity development (Physical and Institutional Capacity). A complete model specification following the ODD+D (Overview, Design concepts, Details, and Decision) protocol is included in the documentation.
We used a computer simulation to measure how well different network structures (fully connected, small world, lattice, and random) find and exploit resource peaks in a variable environment.
The Nice Musical Chairs (NMC) model represent the competition for space between groups of stakeholders of farming and herding activities in the arid Afro-Eurasia.
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